🔗 Share this article From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro. A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force announces its intention to govern indefinitely. That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for this long.” These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”
A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force announces its intention to govern indefinitely. That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for this long.” These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”